The ruling People's Action Party (PAP) capitalised
on positive sentiment amid Singapore's 50th anniversary to put in an extremely
strong performance in September's parliamentary elections, capturing 69.9% of
the popular vote. However, we expect the party to broadly retain its policy
strategy adopted in 2011, as its more consultative approach to governance
appears to have paid significant dividends.
Singapore's ongoing restructuring drive continues,
with the PAP pushing ahead with stricter foreign labour rules despite an
increasingly tight labour market. We believe that the tight labour market is acting
as a significant headwind to real GDP growth, but do not see the PAP easing
measures in any significant way despite its landslide victory in September's
parliamentary elections.
Major Forecast Changes
Following a deceleration in real GDP growth to 2.2%
in 2015, we believe that the economy will cool further to a 1.9% rate of
expansion in 2016. Singapore's labour-intensive manufacturing industry is
losing competitiveness as a result of an extremely tight labour market; along
with a difficult external environment, this will cap growth over the near-term.
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more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/singapore-country-risk-report-q2-2016
Spain's economy will remain among the fastest
growing in the eurozone in 2016, in spite of the country's ongoing political
impasse. Tailwinds from cheap oil and the European Central Bank's quantitative
easing programme will support short-term growth, but will act as a disincentive
for politicians to implement the structural reforms needed to boost long-term
growth. Spain's current account surplus has peaked and will shrink over the
coming years, returning to deficit in around 2020.
Already unrealistic budget deficit targets will
move further out of reach once a new government is (eventually) formed in
Spain. Spain is set for a period of high political instability, as the December
20 election produced no clear winner and left Spain with an extremely divided
political system.
Major Forecast Changes
A further leg down in oil prices (oil dipped below
USD30/bbl in January 2016) has prompted us to revise up our real GDP forecasts
to 2.5% in 2016 and 2.2% the following year, from 2.4% and 2.1% previously.
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more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/spain-country-risk-report-q2-2016
Given that the Sri Lankan economy is relatively
small and open, the administration’s balanced and pragmatic approach towards
ethnic reconciliation on the island and foreign relations will be positive for
growth over the medium- to long term. However, we believe that there will be
several key challenges which will inhibit progress over the near term.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is likely to
keep its policy rates on hold over the coming months with a tightening bias in
order to manage the cost of refinancing for public debt, ensure price
stability, and down play the risk of a balance of payment crisis.
Major Forecast Changes
Despite a likely recovery in the industrial sector
over the coming quarters, we expect the Sri Lankan economy to face mounting
headwinds from a difficult global economic outlook, a high fiscal deficit, and rising
risks of a BoP crisis. As such, we have downgraded Sri Lanka’s real GDP growth
forecast for 2016 to 6.3%, from 6.7% previously, a stabilisation of growth in
the economy (with growth estimated to come in at 6.2% in 2015).
We are bearish on the Sri Lankan rupee and expect
the currency to depreciate further to LKR152.00/USD by end-2016 (versus our
previous forecast of LKR148.00/USD) due to persistent external headwinds,
global economic uncertainties, rising inflationary pressure, and elevated
levels of public indebtedness.
We are bearish on Sri Lanka’s fixed income market
in 2016 as the central bank could be forced to raise interest rates to prevent
a balance of payments crisis. Meanwhile, due to higher budget expenditures and
a less optimistic revenue growth outlook, we now forecast a budget deficit
equivalent to 6.3% of GDP (up from our previous forecast of 5.8%), which will
exert upside pressures on sovereign bond yields.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/sri-lanka-country-risk-report-q2-2016
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