In
the coming year, rising external and domestic headwinds will weigh on economic
growth in Switzerland. These include a Brexitinduced slowdown in regional trade
and subsequent rise in political uncertainty, a weak short-term consumption
outlook and rising risks surrounding the property market. The negative side
effects of rapid Swiss franc appreciation in early 2015 have largely worn off,
with negligible lasting damage to the economy, and Switzerland is poised for
stable real GDP growth over the medium term. Switzerland's growth trajectory
will be increasingly powered by consumer spending. The government's robust
fiscal position implies it will be able to step in and boost growth in the
event that any external shock puts a sharp brake on Swiss growth. The Swiss
National Bank will refrain from cutting interest rates deeper into negative
territory and instead will continue to intervene in foreign exchange markets in
order to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Beyond the next several years,
the franc will gradually depreciate from fundamentally overvalued levels. A
narrowing of Switzerland's large current account surplus will gather steam in
2016, but the surplus will remain sizeable over the coming years.
Major
Forecast Changes
We
have revised down our Swiss real GDP growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.4% in 2016
and 2017 respectively, from 1.5% and 1.7% previously.
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more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/switzerland-country-risk-report-q4-2016
Poland’s robust real GDP growth will continue
throughout 2016 and 2017, driven mainly by household consumption and fixed
investment. The sharp drop in oil prices has led to a positive adjustment in
Poland’s external accounts, although growing domestic demand will lead the current
account deficit to widen in 2017. The right-wing Law and Justice government
will continue to slightly widen the fiscal deficit, and now expect Poland to
breach the 3.0% of GDP Maastricht criteria threshold in 2017. Major Forecast
Changes On the back Brexit-induced uncertainty, we have revised our real GDP
growth forecasts down.
We now forecast Poland’s economy to expand by 3.6%
in 2016 (down from 3.7%) and by 3.1% in 2017 from the previously forecast 3.5%.
In particular, fixed investment and export growth will decline in 2017 due to
low confidence across the board.
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more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/poland-country-risk-report-q4-2016
The ruling United Russia party will retain its
parliamentary majority in legislative elections on September 18, benefiting
from President Vladimir Putin’s high approval ratings, patriotic fervour, and a
weakened opposition. This will override dissatisfaction with poor economic
conditions in the near term. The main political risk for Putin remains a
challenger from within his circle, although he remains the frontrunner ahead of
presidential elections in March 2018.
Russia’s economy is emerging from prolonged
recession in H216 but we forecast growth in 2017 and 2018 to be relatively
subdued when considering the scale of the downturn since 2014. Rising oil
prices are acting as a short-term boost, but will reduce the urgency to
implement badly needed structural reforms, thus maintaining the country’s
commodity dependence. Russia’s long-term growth potential is subdued, closer to
that of mature developed economies rather than a higher growth emerging market.
This is due to the highly centralised nature of the economic model and large
government footprint in key sectors, reliance on energy exports, poor business
environment, weak investment growth and lack of structural reform momentum.
Russia’s external position will remain a bright spot for the economy despite a
fall in the price of its main commodity exports, with the current account
surplus remaining in relatively robust surplus in the coming years as imports
remain subdued. Over the coming quarters we expect little financing pressure to
emerge in the economy as its large international reserves position remains
sufficient to entirely cover maturing external obligations.
While Russia’s fiscal position is bolstered by very
low public debt ratios and fiscal reserves at its disposal, the sovereign
profile will deteriorate in the coming years and major fiscal reforms – such as
an overhaul of the pension system – will be necessary to ensure long-term
sustainability of the public finances in light of lower commodity prices. Major
Forecast Changes We have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast for 2016 from
-1.2% to -0.8%.
We now expect additional rouble appreciation against
the US dollar in 2017, forecasting an average exchange rate over the year of
RUB58.0/USD.
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more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/russia-country-risk-report-q4-2016
Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be
driven by domestic consumption, which will offset external headwinds to a large
degree. However, the large debt burden of the private sector will restrain
growth over a multi-year horizon. We retain the view that the government will
remain unstable. The one-party Liberal minority government will have a
difficult time passing legislation, making it likely that the government will
be ousted before its term ends in 2019. There is a high probability that
Denmark will seek a renegotiation with the European Union over its terms of
membership in the bloc following the UK's vote in June 2016 to leave the union.
In any event, eurosceptic parties will continue to press for reform, increasing
political instability.
Major
Forecast Changes
We have downgraded our 2016 real GDP growth forecast
to 0.8% from 1.0% previously, and 2017 to 1.0% from 1.2% previously. This is on
account of external factors dampening economic activity in Denmark between now
and 2018, including the impact of 'Brexit'. We now see central bank policy
interest rate hikes beginning in 2020, a year later than we had previously
expected.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/denmark-country-risk-report-q4-2016
2016 and 2017 will see moderate growth in the
Egyptian economy, following five years of stagnation and volatility. The fiscal
and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy
reform. Subsidy cuts are likely to be watered down if public unrest occurs on a
significant scale. However, the bulk of reform will remain in place. Hikes to
domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double
digits by the end of the year. Egypt’s geopolitical importance will ensure that
even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign
aid commitments will materialise at the turn of the year.
Western powers such as the US and EU have an
interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more
pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from
the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year. We are below consensus on Egyptian
growth for FY2017 (2.6% to 3.6%)
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/egypt-country-risk-report-q4-2016
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