Hong Kong Business Forecast Report Q1 2015, New Report Launched

Hong Kong's economy slowed yet again in Q214, with real GDP growth coming in at a disappointing 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y). Owing to dual headwinds from China as well as the teetering domestic property market, we have downgraded our 2014 and 2015 real GDP forecasts to 2.5% and 3.3% respectively, from 3.0% and 3.7% previously. We continue to expect the nascent correction in Hong Kong property prices to continue over the course of 2015.

However, the correction is likely to be relatively mild, with price declines in the range of 10-15% within the realm of possibility. Some upside risk to this forecast will remain in play as long as the city-state's supply side woes, although the rising likelihood of monetary tightening in the US in 2015 is clouding the medium-term outlook. While Hong Kong's fiscal position remains on a sound footing, the potential for a normalisation of interest rates in the US could pose a challenge to the government.

On the one hand, government revenues will be hit by the subsequent fall in property prices in the city-state. As cooling measures are withdrawn, this will also hit revenues. However, we expect such measures to remain in place for the time being, and see Hong Kong running a small fiscal surplus in 2015. Hong Kong's democratic reform process, the cornerstone of which is meant to entail the introduction of universal suffrage by 2017, has become an increasingly contentious issue over recent months.

We do not expect a satisfactory solution to the process in the near-term, as Beijing's model for 2017 elections does not fit with that of Hong Kong's pro-democracy contingent. Following major demonstrations in October 2014, further flare-ups are highly possible.

The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Hong Kong and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Hong Kong's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Publisher.

Key Uses

• Forecast the pace and stability of Hong Kong's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
• Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
• Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
• Contextualise Hong Kong's country risks against regional peers using PUBLISHER's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
• Evaluate external threats to doing business in Hong Kong, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Hong Kong economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

PUBLISHER provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Hong Kong through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Hong Kong Business Forecast Report features PUBLISHER's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and PUBLISHER's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

• Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
• PUBLISHER's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

• Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
• Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
• Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
• Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
• Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
• Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
• External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
• Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

• Rely upon PUBLISHER's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Hong Kong and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
• Exploit the benefits of PUBLISHER's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Hong Kong, sourced and fully maintained by PUBLISHER from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
• Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from PUBLISHER's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Hong Kong over the next 5-years?

PUBLISHER's Hong Kong country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

• SWOT Analysis for the Hong Kong Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Hong Kong.
• Political Stability and Risk Assessment - PUBLISHER's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Hong Kong's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
• Current Administration and Policy-making PUBLISHER assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

• Benchmark Hong Kong's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
• Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
• Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through PUBLISHER's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

• Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Hong Kong, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.
• Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Hong Kong's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

• Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
• Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
• Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

• Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using PUBLISHER's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
• Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using PUBLISHER's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Hong Kong will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

PUBLISHER's identifies investment opportunities in Hong Kong's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

• Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
• 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using PUBLISHER's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
• Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - PUBLISHER's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

• Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
• Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

Spanning over 45 pages “Hong Kong Business Forecast Report Q1 2015” report covering Executive Summary, Political Outlook, Long-Term Political Outlook, Economic Outlook, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Balance Of Payments, 10-Year Forecast, Operational Risk, Key Sectors, Global Assumptions.

Know more about this report at – http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/hong-kong-business-forecast-report-q1-2015