Belgium's economic recovery is beginning to gain momentum. Growth in
2016 will be stronger than the previous year and in line with the broader
eurozone.
Economic growth will be constrained by the continuation of austerity
measures by the incumbent government. Significant fiscal cutbacks will dampen
the contribution from government consumption during 2015-2016.
A weaker euro combined with quickening growth and domestic demand in
the eurozone will provide a moderate boost to Belgium's exporters over the forecast
period.
Belgium's extremely high national debt continues to leave it exposed
to a potential deterioration in economic growth exasperating debt servicing
pressure and also the possibility of yields increasing due to eurozone
instability.
Major Forecast Changes
We have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast to 1.6% for both 2016
and 2017, from 1.4% and 1.5% previously.
For
more information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/belgium-country-risk-report-q1-2016
Botswana’s economy will be hit by the global diamond price and demand
slump, slashing real GDP growth in half during 2015. We have revised down our
near term real GDP forecast for Botswana, the world’s second biggest diamond
producer after Russia. Economic growth will slow to 2.5% in 2015 and 4.1% 2016,
compared to our previous forecast of 4.1% and 4.4%, respectively.
Lower fuel and food prices and continued slack in the economy will
allow the Bank of Botswana to keep monetary policy accommodative through the
remainder of 2015.
In the continued absence of meaningful economic diversification, the
mining sector is set to remain a key engine of growth. While nickel, copper and
particularly coal will become more prominent in the country’s export base, as
well as driving investment, diamonds will retain their primacy.
We expect a return to the political status quo in Botswana in 2015 and
2016, following escalating tensions in the run up to the October 2014 general
elections.
For
more information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/botswana-country-risk-report-q1-2016
Brazil is in the midst of an economic policy shift. A new economic
team will attempt to reverse the fiscal deterioration seen in the last few
years and the central bank is more strongly committed to reining in inflation.
That said, these shifts will be slow to translate into stronger real GDP growth
given a number of domestic and external headwinds.
We see little upside for Brazilian real GDP growth in the next few
years. Significant headwinds to fixed investment and private consumption will
see real GDP contract by over 2.0% in 2015 before contracting again in 2016.
A greater commitment to tackling inflation will see the central bank
hike the benchmark Selic target rate to 14.25% by end-2015. This will bolster
the bank's inflation fighting credentials but will not succeed in bringing
headline inflation back with its 4.5% ± 2.0% tolerance band this year.
The widespread public protests that took place in June 2013 marked a
turning point for the Brazilian electorate. Public unrest will flare up
intermittently until significant progress on promised reforms, including
higher-quality public services and greater government transparency, begins to
take shape. In line with this view, an ongoing corruption scandal at national
oil company Petrobras will continue to drive public protests in the coming
months.
Major Forecast Changes
- We have downgraded our 2015 real GDP growth forecast further, to -2.3%, from -1.7% previously. Significant labour market deterioration helps to underpin this forecast change, as private consumption will be more subdued than we previously anticipated.
- We have raised our end-2015 interest rate forecast to 14.25%, from 14.50% previously, as hawkish rhetoric from the central bank combined with above-target inflation suggests that further rate hikes are on the cards this year.
For
more information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/brazil-country-risk-report-q1-2016
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