Cameroon will make little progress in tackling its fiscal deficit over
the next five years as it continues with an ambitious programme of capital
expenditure. Growth in revenue will be slow as oil prices remain subdued,
leading to an increase in the country's debt burden as the government seeks to
finance its deficit.
Cameroon's economy will receive a boost in 2016 thanks to the
government's ambitious programme of capital expenditure and infrastructure
investment. A stable currency and increasing cocoa production will help offset
weakness in Cameroon's oil sector. The government's infrastructure pipeline
will ensure Cameroon's import growth remains robust in 2016. Although we expect
a recovery in exports thanks to non-oil goods, this will not be sufficient to
prevent a widening of the current account deficit. A surge in government
borrowing will finance this deficit through a capital account surplus.
President Paul Biya's unexplained month-long absence has increased political
uncertainty in Cameroon. Unanswered questions surrounding Biya's succession
will increase the potential for volatility over the political transition, with
factionalism and Islamist attacks to flourish in the political vacuum that
follows.
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more information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/cameroon-country-risk-report-q1-2016
Economic growth will gradually recover after the oil-shock-led
collapse in investment. Higher manufacturing activity will drive stronger
investment in the non-energy sector over the coming years.
Stronger US demand and a weaker exchange rate will lead to a gradual
rebalancing away from Canada's high reliance on commodity exports.
The Bank of Canada will keep its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50%
until 2017 amid low inflation and weak growth.
Major Forecast Changes
- We have lowered our 2015 real GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.2% after weaker-than-expected growth in the first two quarters of the year.
- We now see a steady narrowing of Canada's current account deficit, having previously projected continued widening of the shortfall, amid signs that consumer goods and vehicle exports are replacing oil exports.
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more information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/canada-country-risk-report-q1-2016
Political tensions in South Caucasus will remain high over the coming
years as increased Russian intervention in Georgia's breakaway territories
fuels concerns that Russia will attempt to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani-Armenian relations will remain strained over the frozen
conflict surrounding Nagorno- Karabakh.
Armenia's economy will continue to struggle during 2015-2016 primarily
due to its trade and remittance flow links with ailing Russia. Beyond this we
continue to see little means of diversifying its growth model away from one
driven by private consumption underpinned by volatile remittance flows.
Georgian real GDP growth will slow over the next two years relative to
the 5.5% average growth achieved between 2010 and 2014 due to exposure to
Russia's economic crisis, which has been triggered by Western sanctions and
magnified by a dramatic fall in global oil prices. We forecast the Russian
economy to contract 5.2% in real terms this year.
Azerbaijan will continue to tread a fine line between siding with
either Russia or the EU. Azerbaijan's economic interests can be better served
by increasing trade and energy routes with the EU, while maintaining good
relations with Moscow will likely assist in keeping the autocratic regime of
President Ilham Aliyev in power.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our forecasts for Armenian headline real GDP
growth to 0.5% and 1.9% for 2015 and 2016, from 2.9% and 3.2% respectively.
This sharp downward revision is primarily due to the worsening outlook for
Armenia's main trading partner, Russia, which we forecast to experience a 5.2%
economic contraction during 2015.
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more information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/caucasus-country-risk-report-q1-2016
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