China, Kazakhstan, Mexico and New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q4 2016; New Report Launched

China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015.

Key Forecasts

• Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 0.9% to 12.3mn tonnes. In spite of the increase in production in 2016/17, soybean production will remain low in China as the crop lack attractiveness for farmers.
• Pork production growth to 2019/20: 13.0% to 62.1mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.
• Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 16.7% to 19.6mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by rising income, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy, beverage, and food processing
• BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,327mn in 2016 (up 2.9% compared with 2015, growth forecast to average 4.3% annually between 2016 and 2020).
• 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2015, forecast to average 5.8% between 2016 and 2020).
• 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.8% y-o-y average (up from 1.5% in 2015, forecast to average 2.3% between 2016 and 2020).
• 2016 Central Bank policy rate: 4.10% eop (down from 4.35% eop in 2015; forecast to average 4.10% eop between 2016 and 2020.

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The interest of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan livestock industry supports our view that this is the sub-sector with most growth potential. Poultry production in particular is expected to perform well over the next five years. The development of the livestock industry ties into another key trend we expect to take hold over our forecast period: the diversification of arable production away from the bedrock commodity, wheat. Feed grains will assume greater importance, particularly corn, in the grains complex.

The dairy industry is growing from a weaker base than that enjoyed by meat producers, so we expect statefunded schemes to play a more significant role in its medium-term development and modernisation.

Key Forecasts

• Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -2% to 13.4mn tonnes. Yields will support modest annual increases in output beyond 2016/17. This is despite declining acreage due to subsidies incentivising sowings of other field crops. The main reason for the decline is low base effects.
• Milk consumption growth to 2020: 16.0% to 5.3mn tonnes. Demand will be held back in the short term by a challenging macroeconomic environment, but we expect strong growth to return in the later years of our forecast period.
• 2016 real GDP growth: 1.5%, down from 1.3% in 2015, predicting to average 4% out to 2020.
• 2016 average consumer price inflation: 12.8% y-o-y, up from 7.0% y-o-y in 2015.

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We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4 2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years, but we see positive trends in domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts

• We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020.
• We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork, whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

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We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand throughout the medium-tolong term. This will be supportive for the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity. However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to low prices on the international market, as well as herd rebuilding. We believe prices will pick up again later in 2017.

Key Forecasts

• Milk production growth to 2019/20: 4.6% to 22.9mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.
• Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 15.4% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments, export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
• 2016 real GDP growth: 2.3%, down from 3.0% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2016 and 2020.

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