Egypt, Ghana and Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q4 2016; New Report Launched

We have not made significant changes to our forecasts in this quarter's update. We retain our view that Egypt will face growing production deficits in grains and meat, as it focuses on export-oriented cash crops, while the dairy sector will benefit from sustained private investment. Leading up to 2020, an expanding population and rising disposable incomes will support consumption growth in sugar and dairy products. Moreover, rice and beef consumption will benefit from the greater range of products available under the new food subsidy scheme. The real challenges that Egypt faces throughout the long run are water shortages and a dire need to improve farming mechanisms to conserve water for sustained irrigation purposes.

Key Forecasts

Wheat production by 2020: 8.42mn tonnes. Wheat production will be constrained by a greater amount of arable land being devoted to export-oriented crops.

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We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth throughout our forecast period to 2019/20. High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. However, a significant portion of the growth will be due to base effects. We also see long-term opportunities (but also significant structural challenges) in the Ghanaian palm oil sector.

Key Forecasts

• Cocoa production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 9% to 853,000 tonnes. While much of this growth will be due to base effects, the government has committed to supplying free inputs and improving infrastructure, while Cocobod has reformed its cocoa payment price.
• 2016 real GDP growth: 4.2% (up from an estimated 3.4% in 2015).
• 2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 17.9% (down from an estimated 17.1% in 2015).

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We retain our generally negative outlook for Ukraine's agricultural sector in 2016 owing to a range of concerns. All agricultural markets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic fundamentals in Ukraine. There will be limited investment into the country over the coming quarters given the unstable political and economic situation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast period. Russia's ban on imports from Ukraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock industries, as Russia represents one of Ukraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore, significant currency depreciation will limit imports, hitting input use and domestic investment. However, we believe that Ukrainian farmers will fail to benefit from the opportunities linked to this weaker currency due to export restrictions and lack of resources to scale up production in the medium term.

Key Forecasts

• Corn production will decline by 18.0% in 2015/16 to reach a total value of 23.3mn tonnes.
• We are estimating the wheat crop in 2016/17 to decline by 8.3% to reach 25.0mn tonnes.
• The livestock and dairy sectors will perform poorly in 2015/16 owing to unsound macroeconomic conditions.

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