Tuesday, 23 February 2016

India, Germany and Pakistan Autos Report Q2 2016; New Report Launched

India, Germany and Pakistan Autos Report Q2 2016

A combination of helpful demographic trends and solid economic growth continues to underpin Publisher's positive stance towards the Indian new vehicle sales market in 2016 and beyond. This quarter, we revised our auto sales forecasts for India and extended our forecast period to 2020.

Key Views
  • We expect sales to grow roughly 35% in the Indian new vehicle market between 2016 and 2020.
  • We expect commercial vehicle sales to grow more than passenger car sales over 2016-2020.
  • In 2016/17 there will be continued new vehicle sales growth of 6.1%.
  • The motorcycle segment will remain the single largest part (nearly five times the size of the four-wheel segment) of the wider autos sector between 2016 and 2020.
  • In the passenger cars segment, local manufacturer Maruti Suzuki tightened its already firm grip on the Indian new vehicle sales market over 2015.
  • The country also has a growing appetite for luxury car brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW.


We maintain our view that the strong consumer recovery, driven by increasing real wage growth and Germany's economic rebalancing from an export driven economy towards more private consumption, will drive growth in the passenger vehicle segment.

Key Views
  • Passenger vehicle sales will grow 5.6% in 2016.
  • Consequences from the Volkswagen emissions scandal will remain focused on Volkswagen only, and are unlikely to cause serious downturn in overall car demand.
  • A lack of investment in the infrastructure sector will hinder the commercial vehicle segment.
  • Vehicle production growth will slow marginally as emerging market growth remains weak.


The momentum in the Pakistan autos market will remain strong as low inflationary pressures keep interest rates at multi-year lows. Total vehicle sales are forecast to grow 18.2% as favourable monetary conditions provide lower credit costs for consumers looking to finance their vehicle purchases.

Key Views
  • Total vehicle sales forecast to grow 18.2% in 2016.
  • With record-low interest rates lowering borrowing costs for potential car owners since the rate cuts in January, we believe demand momentum will extend into 2016.
  • Commercial vehicle sales will remain strong in 2016 as the taxi scheme, which ends in February 2016, boosts sales.

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