Thailand Business Forecast Report Q2 2014, New Report Launched

Thailand’s political stalemate has had a devastating impact on economic growth, and with no signs of a possible resolution in the near term, we expect economic activity to remain depressed in 2014. The risk of a sustained contraction in GFCF over the coming quarters presents the biggest threat to Thailand’s economic outlook as confidence in political stability is shaken.

• We believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will keep its policy rate on hold at 2.25% throughout 2014. We caution that should Thailand’s political situation deteriorate rapidly over the coming months, this could eventually force the BoT to ease monetary policy in a bid to support growth. However, for now, we believe that the risk of triggering major foreign capital outflows and the negative impact on the Thai baht will continue to weigh more heavily on the BoT’s stance on monetary policy.
• We hold a relatively neutral view on the Thai baht over the coming months following the recent 14.0% peak-to-trough decline in the unit.
• On one hand, the political and economic situation in the country is baht negative, with no meaningful end in sight to the ongoing political impasse, and foreign and domestic investment likely to struggle in 2014. On the other hand, the technical picture of the baht is stabilising, while a shift in protests away from central Bangkok should provide some relief to the economy following months of partial shutdown.
• The currency’s tight correlation with regional FX also suggests that the baht will follow regional trends. We believe the latest move by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to charge caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra for alleged negligence could potentially tip the balance in favour of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) as the political stalemate in stretches into its fourth month. Should the NACC’s charges fail to remove Yingluck and her caretaker government from power, however, we believe that the political stalemate could drag further into H214

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Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded our real GDP growth forecast for Thailand from 3.8% to 3.2% for 2014. With no signs of a possible resolution to the political impasse and violent protests,

Key Risks To Outlook

The main downside risks comes from a renewed escalation of violent protests by those opposed to the current government If this occurs we could see a violent backlash by pro-government red-shirt supporters, which could lead to a rapid escalation. The army has recently cautioned about the growing risk of a civil war, and has stressed its reluctance to step in to restore peace.

We believe the latest move by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to charge caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra for alleged negligence could potentially tip the balance in favour of the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) as the political stalemate in stretches into its fourth month. Should the NACC's charges fail to remove Yingluck and her caretaker government from power, however, we believe that the political stalemate could drag further into H214.

Thailand's political situation will remain highly volatile, and it is difficult to envision political stability over the next few years. In the event of prolonged social unrest, we do not preclude another military coup occurring, although this would by no means resolve matters.

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We have downgraded our real GDP growth forecast for Thailand from 3.8% to 3.2% for 2014. With no signs of a possible resolution to the political impasse and violent protests, the risk of a sustained contraction in gross fixed capital formation over the coming quarters presents the biggest threat to Thailand's economic outlook in 2014 and 2015.

We forecast Thailand's fiscal deficit to widen from 2.4% of GDP in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014 amid increasing evidence that the political impasse could drag into H214. Meanwhile, the government's rice policy is proving to be a costly mistake, and we believe that scrapping the rice policy completely (or making major changes to it), is crucial to government efforts to bring the fiscal budget back in balance.

We believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will keep its policy rate on hold at 2.25% throughout 2014. We caution that should Thailand's political situation deteriorate rapidly over the coming months, this could eventually force the BoT to ease monetary policy in a bid to support growth. However, for now, we believe that the risk of triggering major foreign capital outflows and the negative impact on the Thai baht will continue to weigh more heavily on the BoT's stance on monetary policy.

The Thai economy should expand fairly robustly until 2022 but continued political uncertainty means that its full growth potential is unlikely to be reached. Aside from the political turmoil, a greater focus on improving human capital and transport infrastructure is needed to ensure that Thailand remains competitive.

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United Arab Emirates Business Forecast Report Q2 2014, New Report Launched

Our baseline scenario sees relatively solid growth over the coming quarters, with real GDP forecast to expand 3.9% and 4.1% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. The outlook for Dubai has become more promising relative to that for Abu Dhabi, with the former benefitting from increased activity in the trade and tourism sectors, in addition to our expectation that the all-important real estate industry is now on the road to recovery. Credit growth to the private sector will remain anaemic through 2014 as commercial banks continue to increase provisioning against potential loan losses due to the debt funding cliff.

Major Forecast Changes -

On the back of a stronger-than-expected recovery in Dubai’s residential property sector, we have revised up our 2014 average inflation forecast, and now project the headline print coming in at 2.0% this year.

Key Risks to Outlook -

Any attack by Islamist militants would result in a fundamental reappraisal of both the UAE’s, and the wider region, risk profile. A further uptick in tensions between the West and Iran could result in a deterioration in the UAE’s sovereign risk profile given the close proximity and deep trade ties between the two countries. Downside risks to oil prices in 2014 are elevated, which could undermine the UAE’s already fragile macroeconomic recovery.

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A potential deal between Iran and the UAE over Abu Musa and the Tunbs islands is a very positive step for the region in reducing geopolitical risks. The deal removes of the few external risks facing the UAE, while also indicating Iran's change towards a more accommodative foreign policy.

The UAE is not without its challenges. However, it is one of the more stable Gulf states over the long term, with a small, wealthy population; no history of terrorism; and no sectarian tensions to speak of.

We maintain our bullish outlook on the UAE's economies as a wealth of data points to continued growth. Consumer and business sentiment remains positive, underlining our particularly bright outlook for household consumption and fixed investment over the coming quarters.

We hold a bullish outlook on Dubai's economy over the coming years as a whole host of sectors possess significant growth prospects. We expect the emirate to become an increasingly important growth driver in the UAE as the emirate records the fastest GDP growth rates on the back of the tourism, real estate and retail sectors.

Publisher expect Abu Dhabi to see a broad slowdown over the coming years as gains in the crucial oil sector become harder to maintain. We forecast Abu Dhabi's real GDP growth to reach 3.5% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015, following an estimated 3.6% in 2013. This forecast lags our expectations for the UAE as a whole as the non-oil sector will be unable to maintain the former growth reached by the larger oil sector.

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We maintain our bullish outlook for the emirate of Sharjah, largely on the back of our positive forecast for Dubai. Sharjah will benefit from rising housing costs in neighbouring Dubai which should push up demand for the former's own housing sector. In addition, Sharjah's growing shipping and tourism reinforce our sanguine outlook for the emirate.

In line with our expectations, inflation continues to tick higher in the UAE, with Dubai leading the price rise. We forecast inflation to average 2.0% in 2014, up from 1.1 % in 2013. The key driver of inflation in the UAE will be house prices, as the inflationary impact of food diminishes.

We expect 2014 to be a key year for the global Islamic finance industry as several new markets come to the fore. It has been our longheld view that rather than becoming an integrated global financial system, Islamic banking will see the creation of regional hubs. Even with this slightly fragmented outlook, we still expect significant growth for the sector.

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Central America Business Forecast Report Q2 2014, New Report Launched

Core Views -

• The region’s economic trajectory remains divergent. Despite our expectations for slower real GDP growth in Panama in the next several years, it will remain the regional outperformer. On the other hand, we have a more mixed outlook for growth in the ‘northern triangle’ countries, with Guatemala likely to fare better than Honduras and El Salvador.
• Central American will remain heavily dependent on the performance of the US economy, which remains a major source for remittance flows, and a destination for goods exports.
• Drug-related violence and high levels of insecurity will remain the major concerns for most of the region’s electorate, although such concerns will be particularly elevated among the ‘northern triangle’ states of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.

Major Forecast Changes -

Following the release of Q313 GDP data, we have revised up our 2014 real GDP growth forecast for Nicaragua to 5.1%, from 4.2% previously, based on our view for a continued strengthening of the country’s export performance. Indeed, we believe that economic growth will be driven by strengthening US demand for manufactured exports, and a modest uptick in coffee production following the recent renovation and rehabilitation of several major farms. While we have downgraded our GDP forecasts for Honduras after incorporating the latest data provided by the central bank, we expect that growth will pick up slightly in 2014, to 2.8%, compared to our estimate of 2.2% in 2013. The improvement will be based on a better performance in the export sector and greater confidence in the country as an investment destination as political risk subsides following the presidential election.

Key Risk to Outlook -

Downside Risk: We note downside risks to our 2014 real GDP growth forecast of 7.1% for Panama, in light of significant delays in the Panama Canal expansion project in recent weeks. Should work continue to progress slowly in the coming months, we could be encouraged to revise down our real GDP growth forecast for this year.

Downside Risk: Should Nicaragua’s export performance remain poor, the central bank may consider modestly accelerating the rate of the córdoba’s depreciation in order to bolster economic competitiveness. Indeed, given that the córdoba has appreciated in real effective exchange rate terms in recent years, a significantly weaker exchange rate could provide a boost to Nicaragua’s export sector, particularly its burgeoning textile manufacturing industry.

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Angola Business Forecast Report Q2 2014, New Report Launched

Publisher expects economic activity in Angola to pick up over the coming quarters following a challenging 2013. Despite a pickup in oil production, we believe the non-oil sector will continue to be the main engine of economic growth, driven in large part by heavy state spending on infrastructure and a buoyant consumer segment. While the current account will remain in the black over next few years, we believe this surplus will decline as a percentage of GDP driven by a gradual weakening of the trade balance on the back of resilient import demand.

Publisher expects inflation in Angola to be relatively contained through 2014 and we are forecasting marginally lower average price growth compared to 2013. While we believe that conditions will continue to broadly support the authorities' accommodative monetary policy stance over the coming months. Angola's fiscal accounts will remain in the red over the next few years as an investment-driven development agenda and heavy current spending commitments see government expenditure outstrip revenue generation. We predict that the fiscal deficit will widen to 4.0% of GDP in 2014 from an estimated 2.2% in 2013.

Major Forecast Changes

Weaker than expected oil production in 2013 has prompted us to revise our current account forecasts. We now forecast a current account surplus of 5.9% of GDP in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015 (compared to our previous projections of 8.8% and 7.8% respectively). Also on the back of lower than anticipated oil production in 2013 and revisions to our oil production forecasts, we have adjusted our forecasts for economic growth. We now forecast growth of 6.8% in 2014 compared to 7.3% previously.

Key Risks to Outlook

Our forecasts, as always, remain subject to the myriad uncertainties associated with oil production and exploration in Angola, along with volatility in global oil prices. Given that our forecasts only include planned oil projects, the upside potential posed by the country's vast and as yet unexploited subsalt reserves poses a major upside risk to our forecasts over the medium-to-long term.

Growing speculation over the health of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, an increasingly vocal opposition and simmering antigovernment sentiment will see political and social tensions in Angola remain elevated over the coming months.

Although Angola has become one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, its transition over the past decade has not been complemented by a move towards a more open political system. The concentration of power, both political and economic, presents the key challenge to economic development and risk to political stability over the coming decade.

A rebound in oil production and robust non-oil sector growth will see economic growth in Angola accelerate over the coming quarters following a weaker-than- expected 2013. We are forecasting real economic expansion of 6.8% in 2014 and 6.6% in 2015.

Although Angola's current account balance will remain in the black over the medium term, we expect this surplus to decline as a percentage of GDP due to resilient import demand and persistent deficits in the services, income and transfer accounts. We are forecasting a current account surplus worth 5.9% of GDP in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015.

We expect inflation in Angola to be relatively contained through 2014 and we are forecasting marginally lower average price growth compared to 2013. While we believe that conditions will continue to broadly support the authorities' accommodative monetary policy stance over the coming months, we see only modest scope for further monetary easing due to rising demand pressures in the country.

Angola's fiscal accounts will remain in the red over the next few years as an investment-driven development agenda and heavy current spending commitments see government expenditure outstrip revenue generation. We predict that the fiscal deficit will widen to 4.0% of GDP in 2014 from an estimated 2.2% in 2013.

Having averaged double digit rates of real GDP expansion since the end of civil war in 2002, we expect growth in Angola over the next 10 years to come at the more moderate, but still robust level of 6.5% per annum. The successfully implemented fiscal and macroeconomic reforms of 2009-2012 allied to vast, albeit moderating oil revenues, will support the government in its diversification efforts, with a major scaling-up of infrastructure investment - both social and economic - at the heart of its plans.

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Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Business Forecast Report Q2 2014, New Report Launched

Cambodia's political scene has taken a turn for the worse over recent months. The crackdown by the government on protesting garment workers poses a risk to the sector's otherwise positive medium term outlook. Meanwhile, it also raises the stakes in the ongoing impasse between the ruling Cambodia People's Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), with the opposition CNRP becoming increasingly emboldened by their growing support base, and Hun Sen's CPP facing a tough task in maintaining the country's stable business environment. On the economic front, while the tourism industry continues to show promise, the construction sector is likely to suffer over the coming quarters as the nation's credit boom winds down. The current lending boom is resembling that which came to a rapid end amid the global financial crisis, and we believe that the country's hot real estate sector could be in for a rude awakening.

Laos -

Despite acknowledging that urgent fiscal reforms are needed, Vientiane has done little to alter its excessive spending patterns with the fiscal deficit widening substantially to 5.8% of GDP in FY2012/13 from 1.3% in the previous year. Public expenditures swelled as a result of a surge in the public sector wage bill owing to a rapid expansion in the civil servant headcount and substantial raises in civil service wages. Revenues, meanwhile, were hurt by a fall in mining income as commodity prices were subdued and gold production fell. We believe that fiscal reforms are likely to dominate Laos' political scene as the government continues to struggle to arrest a deteriorating fiscal position. While we have highlighted that Vientiane has not been able to alter its profligate spending patterns, some quarters of the government appear resolute to curb public spending. We also highlight that concerns towards the human rights situation in Laos are on the rise and further repressive acts by the government runs the risk of reversing the solid economic progress that has been made over the years. Unless Vientiane starts to make significant headway, it is unlikely to reverse a continued deterioration in its fiscal position.

Myanmar-

Myanmar faces a key test of its nascent reform drive as suggestions for the amendment of its highly flawed constitution are set to be announced. Of particular interest will be the military (Tatmadaw)'s suggestions, which will be the culmination of a review process undertaken earlier in 2013. One of the key questions that may be answered is whether or not the military will agree to a smaller presence in the country's parliament, where it currently holds a mandated 25% of seats. Additionally, the constitutional review may provide the answer as to whether or not venerable opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be allowed to run for president in the upcoming 2015 general election, which would be a major step towards the legitimisation of the elections as a free and fair process. While Myanmar's economic growth potential remains enormous, the country's entire development story will likely hinge upon the government's ability to maintain reform momentum through 2015's elections and beyond.

Several critically important countries are facing tests in 2014 that could determine their political and economic evolution for years to come. Iran perhaps offers the greatest opportunity for positive change, while the biggest systemic risk among 'pivotal' states is the Korean Peninsula.

As Cambodia's political deadlock continues, both the ruling Cambodia People's Party (CPP) and the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) have tough choices to make, which could determine whether the country reverts back to a one party state or democracy is strengthened as reforms are undertaken.

Cambodia's long-term political outlook largely depends on the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP)'s ability to address widespread corruption and income inequality, which have been fuelling public dissent against the government in recent years.

Cambodia's credit boom continues to roll on, and now exceeds the one that preceded the economic slump in 2009 by many measures. Inflation pressures are rising, which could force the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) to tighten liquidity to cool the credit boom.

Despite the heightened levels of social unrest in Cambodia's major cities following the disputed election result in July 2013, tourism inflows have continued apace, growing at 18.0% in 2013. We expect to see double digit increases in the country's crucial tourism industry in 2014 largely on the back of improved transport linkages.

Fiscal reforms are likely to dominate Laos' political scene as the government continues to struggle to arrest a deteriorating fiscal position. While we have highlighted that Vientiane has not been able to alter its profligate spending patterns, some quarters of the government appear resolute to curb public spending.

Laos' long-term political outlook will depend heavily on how well the country balances the need to spur economic growth to achieve its millennium development goals and the need to address widespread corruption and dissent against the government.

Despite acknowledging that urgent fiscal reforms are needed, Vientiane has done little to alter its excessive spending patterns with the fiscal deficit widening substantially to 5.8% of GDP in FY2012/13 from 1.3% in the previous year. Public expenditures swelled as a result of a surge in the public sector wage bill owing to a rapid expansion in the civil servant headcount and substantial raises in civil service wages.

While the Lao government is reviewing a ban on new mining conce ssions that had been due to last until 2015, our sombre outlook on frontier mining continues to suggest that the country's mining sector is set to suffer from falling investment over the coming years. In contrast to gold, we expect copper mining to prove more resilient as PanAust Ltd forges ahead with the expansion of its Phu Kham mine to 90ktpa by 2018.

Myanmar's Joint Constitutional Review Committee has received over 28,247 recommendations for amendments to the country's constitution, which was created by the former military junta and is riddled with extensive weaknesses. While we stress yet again that a genuine effort to amend the constitution would be a huge step in the right direction in terms of Myanmar's political maturation, we note that incipient signs of potential inaction or stalling have emerged. Should the amendment process fail to yield any substantive results, we see downside risks for not only Myanmar's political risk outlook, but also its already challenging business environment.

Myanmar remains one of very few Asian states to have withstood the tide of democratisation since the 1980s. Although Myanmar held its first elections in 20 years in November 2010, these were widely considered a sham, with the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party winning most of the seats.

Myanmar's banking sector has made considerable progress over the past two years, with the provision of credit card and ATM services beginning to chip away at the economy's formerly cash-only nature. However, both structural and policy-related headwinds continue to weigh heavily on the sector's development potential, which in turn could limit the country's broader economic growth outlook.

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The Insurance Industry in Armenia, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2018, New Report Launched

Although very small, the Armenian insurance industry registered significant growth during the review period (2009–2013). Its written premium grew at a review-period compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.9%. This was mainly due to the introduction of mandatory third-party motor insurance in 2011, which had a significant impact on the growth of motor insurance and the overall insurance industry. The written premium value of the motor insurance category rose at a review-period CAGR of 209.8%.

The report provides in-depth industry analysis, information and insights of the insurance industry in Armenia, including:

• The Armenian insurance industry’s growth prospects by insurance segments and categories
• The competitive landscape in the Armenian insurance industry
• The current trends and drivers of the Armenian insurance industry
• Challenges facing the Armenian insurance industry
• Detailed regulatory framework of the Armenian insurance industry

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the insurance industry in Armenia:

• It provides historical values for the Armenian insurance industry for the report’s 2008–2012 review period and projected figures for the 2012–2017 forecast period.
• It offers a detailed analysis of the key segments and categories in the Armenian insurance industry, along with forecasts until 2017.
• It covers an exhaustive list of parameters, including written premium, incurred loss, loss ratio, commissions and expenses, combined ratio, total assets, total investment income and retentions.
• It profiles the top insurance companies in Armenia, and outlines the key regulations affecting them.

Reasons To Buy

• Make strategic business decisions using in-depth historic and forecast industry data related to the Armenian insurance industry and each segment within it.
• Understand the demand-side dynamics, key trends and growth opportunities within the Armenian insurance industry.
• Assess the competitive dynamics in the Armenian insurance industry.
• Identify the growth opportunities and market dynamics within key segments.
• Gain insights into key regulations governing the Armenian insurance industry and its impact on companies and the industry's future.

Key Highlights

• The Armenian insurance industry grew at a review-period CAGR of 50.9%
• The introduction of compulsory motor third-party liability insurance on January 1, 2011 drove the demand for motor insurance
• Motor insurance was the largest category in the non-life segment in terms of written premium value during the review period
• The outlook for the Armenian insurance industry is projected to be buoyant, and is expected to achieve healthy growth over the forecast period
• There were 12 insurance providers licensed to conduct business in 2010, which fell to seven in 2011
• In terms of gross written premium, Rosgosstrakh Armenia accounted for 29.2% of the industry in 2011, followed by Ingo Armenia with 21.7%, Nairi Insurance with 11.9% and Reso with 10.5%

Spanning Over 127 pages, 78 tables, 74 figures, “The Insurance Industry in Armenia, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2018” report covering the Armenian Insurance Industry Overview, Industry Segmentation, Governance, Risk and Compliance, Competitive Landscape, Economic Indicators, Appendix. The report covered 7 companies - Rosgosstrakh Armenia, Ingo Armenia, Nairi Insurance, Reso Insurance, Garant-Limence Armenia, Armenia Insurance, SIL Insurance

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Italy's Cards and Payments Industry: Emerging Opportunities, Trends, Size, Drivers, Strategies, Products and Competitive Landscape, New Report Launched

The Italian card payments channel registered growth during the review period (2009–2013). In terms of number of cards in circulation, the channel registered a CAGR of 6.96% to reach 116.0 million cards by the end of 2013. The channel valued EUR363.3 billion (US$481.6 billion) in 2013.

The prepaid card category is expected to record the highest growth prospects both in terms of the volume of cards in issue and transaction value. In terms of card volume, the prepaid category is anticipated to post a forecast-period CAGR of 17.42% and register a CAGR of 13.41% in terms of transaction value. In volume and value terms, the open-loop prepaid segment is expected to post respective CAGRs of 16.91% and 12.47%.

In value terms, the credit card market posted a review-period CAGR of 1.59%, from EUR59.3 billion (US$82.3 billion) in 2009 to EUR63.1 billion (US$83.7 billion) in 2013. The impact of financial crisis resulted in waning growth in the Italian credit card market, which adversely impacted consumer confidence and forced companies to cut costs. The transaction value of commercial credit cards exhibited a review-period CAGR of 0.89%. Although growth has been impacted, the market still occupies a market share of 11.6% in terms of all Italian card payment channels. This is the result of a government policy of restricting limits on cash payment to EUR1,000 (US$1,390) − above this figure all payments must be made through cards.

In early 2014, MasterCard launched its new platform for digital payments called MasterPass. It helps to make the online transactions and m-commerce faster and more secure, supporting electronic commerce (e-commerce) and mobile commerce (m-commerce) market growth over the forecast period.                                                                                                       

The report provides top-level market analysis, information and insights into Italy's cards and payments industry, including:

• Current and forecast values for each category of Italy's cards and payments industry, including debit cards, credit cards, charge cards and prepaid cards
• Comprehensive analysis of the industry’s market attractiveness and future growth areas
• Analysis of various market drivers and regulations governing Italy's cards and payments industry
• Detailed analysis of the marketing strategies adopted for selling debit, credit , charge and prepaid cards used by banks and other institutions in the market
• Comprehensive analysis of consumer attitudes and buying preferences for cards
• The competitive landscape of Italy's cards and payments industry

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Italy's cards and payments industry.

• It provides current values for Italy's cards and payments industry for 2013, and forecast figures for 2018.
• It details the different economic, infrastructural and business drivers affecting Italy's cards and payments industry.
• It outlines the current regulatory framework in the industry.
• It details the marketing strategies used by various banks and other institutions.
• It profiles the major banks in Italy's cards and payments industry.

Reasons To Buy

• Make strategic business decisions using top-level historic and forecast market data related to Italy's cards and payments industry and each market within it.
• Understand the key market trends and growth opportunities within Italy's cards and payments industry.
• Assess the competitive dynamics in Italy's cards and payments industry.
• Gain insights in to the marketing strategies used for selling various card types in Italy.
• Gain insights into key regulations governing Italy's cards and payments industry.

Key Highlights

• The Italian card payments channel registered growth during the review period (2009–2013). In terms of number of cards in circulation, the channel registered a CAGR of 6.96% to reach 116.0 million cards by the end of 2013. The channel valued EUR363.3 billion (US$481.6 billion) in 2013.
• The prepaid card category is expected to record the highest growth prospects both in terms of the volume of cards in issue and transaction value. In terms of card volume, the prepaid category is anticipated to post a forecast-period CAGR of 17.42% and register a CAGR of 13.41% in terms of transaction value. In volume and value terms, the open-loop prepaid segment is expected to post respective CAGRs of 16.91% and 12.47%.
• The debit card category held the second-highest share with 37.2% in 2013. During the review period, the number of debit cards in circulation grew from 34.2 million in 2009 to 43.2 million in 2013, at a CAGR of 5.99%. Credit and charge cards are expected to decline at a forecast-period CAGR of -3.99%, from 13.1 million cards in circulation in 2014 to 11.1 million in 2018. During the review period the charge card category registered a CAGR of -7.88%.
• The credit crunch, coupled with a decreasing appetite to accumulate debt is expected to discourage consumers from subscribing to credit cards. Credit cards held the smallest share of 11.6% in 2013. In terms of the number of cards in circulation, the category recorded a review-period CAGR of -3.70%. Over the forecast period, credit cards are expected to decline at a CAGR of -0.21% to reach 13.3 million in 2018.

Spanning Over 97 pages, 60 tables, 70 figures, “Italy's Cards and Payments Industry: Emerging Opportunities, Trends, Size, Drivers, Strategies, Products and Competitive Landscape” report covering Analysis of Industry Environment, Key Trends and Drivers, Cards and Payments Industry Share Analysis, Regulatory Framework and Card Fraud Statistics, Emerging Consumer Attitudes and Trends, Analysis of Card Payments and Growth Prospects, Analysis of Credit Card Payments and Growth Prospects, Analysis of Debit Card Payments and Growth Prospects, Analysis of Charge Card Payments and Growth Prospects, Analysis of Prepaid Card Payments and Growth Prospects, Merchant Acquiring, Company Profiles of Card Issuers, Appendix. The report covered 10 companies - Intesa Sanpaola, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Deutsche Bank, Findomestic Banca, CartaSi SpA, Bancomat, MasterCard, Visa, American Express, Diners Club.

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Global anti-counterfeit packaging market to reach $142.7 billion by 2020 according to new report

Secure packaging is one of the essential techniques to avoid counterfeiting. Anti counterfeit packaging is defined as the process of assigning secure packaging to the product in order to minimize counterfeiting or infringement. Anti-counterfeiting packaging is the process of secure packaging that prevents imitation and confirms safety of the goods. Anti-counterfeit measurements are taken by companies, which is helping them in minimizing loss due to counterfeiting in-term of revenue and loyalty. Global anti-counterfeit packaging market was accounted for $57.4 billion in 2013, which is forecast to generate revenue of $142.7 billion by 2020 at 13.9% CAGR from 2013-2020.

Two major factors influencing the adoption of anti-counterfeit packaging are, economical damage to the company and consumer health risks. Pharmaceutical companies experienced loss of approximately $514 billion in the year 2012 This revenue loss is mainly due to counterfeiting activities for non-prescribed drug. Thus, adoption of novel technologies for product tracking would decrease the economical damage and further boost the adoption of anti-counterfeit packaging market. Moreover, Anti-counterfeit technologies are supported by favorable government policies in food and pharmaceutical packaging, which are major driving factor for this market.

Counterfeiting practice is more common in developing countries as compared to developed countries. However, lack of awareness for authenticating pharmaceutical and food products among the consumers is affecting the market growth. Anti-counterfeit packaging market is facing challenges due to globalization of retail sectors which gives advantage to counterfeiters. Market of food, pharmaceutical and other retail products are experiencing loss due to counterfeiting in terms of revenue and intangible assets. Any change in the brand recall packaging method can create barriers to identify the original product and it can easily help counterfeiters to produce fake products in the name of original one. Trends in packaging technology with respect to anti-counterfeit packaging are explained in this report with market intelligence on packaging trends. This report provides intelligence on current market trends in anti-counterfeiting packaging to overcome counterfeiting activities and expected transformation of these trends.

Key Benefits

• The report provides market scenario of current trends and revenues that are forecast from 2012- 2020
• The report identifies key developmental strategies adopted by top companies in the market
• Practical evaluation of key market drivers and restraints for anti counterfeit packaging market segments such as applications and technologies
• This report provides emphasis on key factors affecting the growth of anti-counterfeit packaging market. These factors are critically analyzed to reveal the most influencing factors
• Patent analysis of recently granted patents according to geographies gives market intelligence of future trend transition to provide forecast of trends

Key Market Segments By Technologies

Authentication Packaging Technology

• Ink And Dyes
• Security Inks
• Holograms
• Overt Holograms
• Covert Hologram
• Watermarks
• Physical Paper Watermark
• Digital Watermark
• Taggants
• Detection Taggants
• Identification Taggants

Track And Trace Packaging Technology

• Barcode Technology
• Bar Code Labels
• Paper Barcode Labels
• Aluminum Barcode Labels
• Polyester Barcode Labels
• Ceramic Barcode Labels
• RFID Technology
• Low Frequency RFID
• Ultra-high Frequency RFID
• High Frequency RFID

By Application

• Food Packaging
• Canned Food Packaging
• Convenience Food Packaging
• Baby Food
• Packaged Bakery Products
• Confectionery   
• Packaged Dairy Products
• Packaged Meat Products
• Packaged Seafood
• Pharmaceutical Packaging
• Over The Counter Drugs
• Prescription Based Drugs

By Geography

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• ROW

Key Audiences

• Food And Beverages Packaging Industries
• Pharmaceutical Industries
• Logistics And Shipment Companies
• Government And Private Regulatory Authorities
• Logistics Management Companies

Spanning Over 129 pages, 51 tables, 39 figures, “Global Anti-Counterfeit Packaging Market - Food And Pharmaceuticals (Technology, Application and Geography) - Size, Share, Global Trends, Company Profiles, Demand, Insights, Analysis, Research, Report, Opportunities, Segmentation and Forecast, 2012 – 2020” report covering the Market Overview Of Global Anti Counterfeit Packaging Market, Global Anti-Counterfeiting Market By Technologies, Global Anti-Counterfeiting Market By Applications, Global Anti-Counterfeiting Market By Geography, Company Profiles. The report covered 10 companies - Alien Technology Corp., Alpvision, Zebra Technologies, Inksure Technologies, Avery Dennison, Flint Group, Catalent Pharma Solution Inc., TraceLink Inc., Authentix Inc., Sicapa anti counterfeit market.

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Latest Trends and Key Issues in the European Retail Packaging Market - The outlook for primary packaging containers, closures and outers, New Report Launched

This Report provides readers with a detailed analysis of both historic and forecast trends of packaging consumption across eight major CPG markets in the European region, with a comprehensive coverage of key consumer trends influencing the demand patterns, regulatory frameworks, packaging material dynamics and competitive landscape of major countries.

Key Findings

• Influenced by lowering birth rates and increasing life expectancy, all major European countries such as the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy have more than 16% of population who are aged above 65 years in 2012. This population segment demand light weight convenient pack formats that are easy-to-use and easy-to-open.
• With growing broadband internet penetration, smart phone ownership and a preference for shopping online in Europe, the share of online sales in retail will increase over the next five years. The growth of online sales is likely to boost he demand for secondary packaging, especially for bubble wraps and corrugated packaging formats.
• Increasing awareness of health issues is driving demand for packaging formats that help consumers manage their weight and meet their nutritional goals. Europeans are increasingly paying close attention to labeling and seek information such as health benefits, ingredients, and product origin
• As of the first quarter of 2013, the overall rate of unemployment for the total population stands at 27.2% in Spain, one of the highest rates across the Eurozone. Manufacturers must now focus on providing cheaper products and designing their packaging to convey the attribute of good value for money, which has become the primary concern for young consumers who are unemployed.
• The aspirations of the middle and high income class in Russia have been increasing in light of an increase in their disposable incomes; these consumers have been increasingly looking for better quality products and are willing to spend on premium products or products meeting their aspiration desires. This will positively influence the demand for premium packaging formats

Synopsis

• This report is a detailed industry report providing comprehensive analysis of the emerging trends and opportunities in the European packaging market
• The report is a result of a thorough analysis of consumer trends, packaging manufacturing trends, and packaging innovation in key countries within the Europe's consumer packaged goods market. The report provides both qualitative and quantitative insights into each of the packaging materials- Flexible, Glass, Rigid Plastic, Rigid Metal, and Paper and Board
• The report includes detailed tables and charts to provide a comprehensive understanding of packaging consumption to clearly establish market trends, packaging dynamics, and areas of future growth potential
• It provides an overview of the competitive landscape of major countries in the European packaging sector within analysis of the key market leaders including a snap shot of major deals

Reasons To Buy

• The report provides a comprehensive coverage of the key consumer trends affecting the CPG market. Markets covered include Alcoholic Drinks, Food, Health andBeauty, Home Improvement, Household Care, Non-Alcoholic Drinks, Pet Care, and Tobacco andTobacco Products.
• A complete analysis of each packaging material providing detailed break up including pack types, closures, and outers.
• Provides key manufacturing and innovation trends in the packaging industries of major countries in the European region.
• Highlights the key regulatory framework governing the European packaging industry in major countries.
• Overview of the competitive landscape of major countries in Europe's packaging industry including key players in each of the packaging material segments and major deals.

Spanning Over 207 pages, 70 Tables and 86 Figures “Latest Trends and Key Issues in the European Retail Packaging Market - The outlook for primary packaging containers, closures and outers” report Provide Executive Summary, Overview of the European Packaging Market, Consumer Drivers, Market Dynamics, Packaging Design and Manufacturing Trends, Regulatory Environment, Competitive Landscape, Appendix. This Report Covered 25 Companies - Carlsberg, Coca-Cola, Keienburg, PET Engineering, Husky Injection Molding Systems, Nestlé, Nordenia, Gilles Louvet, Amcor Rigid Plastics, Guittet, GreenBottle, La Fermierehas, Pantene, Actimel, Ecover, Procter and Gamble, Kian, Quadpack, NuovaGidue, Cargill, SincroBloc, Serac, Neopac, Goglio, Infia.

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