While the rest of the eurozone is
showing early signs of recovery, the French economy continues to lag behind the
region. While the improving regional economic outlook may provide some limited
upside potential, this might not be sufficient to drive a recovery in French
manufacturing unless the country first addresses its outstanding
competitiveness issues. While we are likely to see a gradual increase in
positive rhetoric towards structural reforms, Hollande is unlikely to become an
ambitious reformer of the French model.
While we expect some reformers
will take baby steps in the right direction, the ability of Hollande to
implement sweeping reforms will be restrained by divisions within his own party
and core support base, and resistance from the proliferation of special
interest groups which will make unilateral reform a troublesome and compromised
process. We expect pressures on the government to engage in more concerted
fiscal consolidation to mount over the coming quarters, particularly as lower
growth begins to translate into lower government revenues.
While France has thus far not
fallen prey to the bond vigilantes like the peripheral countries of the
eurozone, the country nonetheless has one of the largest public sector debt
piles in Europe and remains susceptible to contagion effects.
Major Forecast Changes
We have downgraded our government
budget forecasts for France and now expect the fiscal deficit to arrive at 4.5%
of GDP in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015, from 4.0% and 3.7% previously.
The France Business Forecast
Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision
making to promote growth and profitability in France and is an essential tool
for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales
Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
Key Uses
- Forecast the pace and stability of France's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise France's country risks against regional peers using Publisher's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in France, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies
Economic Outlook:
How will the France economic
policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
Publisher provides our fully
independent 5-year forecasts for France through end-2018 for more than 50
economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the
impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The France Business Forecast
Report features Publisher's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through
to end-2018, set against government views and Publisher's evaluation of global
and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- Publisher's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
- Rely upon Publisher's 100% independent forecast scenarios for France and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of Publisher's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on France, sourced and fully maintained by Publisher from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from Publisher's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to
doing business in France over the next 5-years?
Publisher's France country Risk
Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the France Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing France.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - Publisher's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for France's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making Publisher assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
Key Benefits
- Benchmark France's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through Publisher's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
Business Environment
- Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for France, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.
- Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of France's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.
Business Environment Contents
- Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
- Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
- Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.
Key Benefits
- Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using Publisher's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
- Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using Publisher's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.
Key Sector Outlook
Which industry sectors in France
will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the
market?
Publisher's identifies investment
opportunities in France's high growth industries including automotives, defence
& security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil &
gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.
Key Areas Covered:
- Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
- 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using Publisher's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
- Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - Publisher's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.
Key Benefits
- Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
- Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.
Spanning over 45 pages “France Business Forecast Report Q1 2015” report covering Executive
Summary, Political Outlook, Long-Term Political Outlook, Economic Outlook,
Balance Of Payments, Fiscal Policy, 10-Year Forecast, Operational Risk, Key
Sectors, Global Assumptions.
Know
more about this report at – http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/france-business-forecast-report-q1-2015
Find all Business
and Government Reports at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-government
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