Hungary Business Forecast Report Q1 2015, New Report Launched

Having been propped up by fiscal stimulus in 2013 and 2014, real GDP growth in Hungary will slow substantially in the coming quarters as government spending is scaled back. Hungary's domestic demand recovery will trail that of its Central European peers due in part to a crippled banking sector, while external demand will remain weak on the back of a stalled eurozone recovery. We believe that the threat of EU structural funding cuts – which Hungary has become increasingly dependent on – will be sufficient motivation for the government to pursue an austerity programme to keep the country's deficit within EU limits in the coming years.

However, public debt will remain well above emerging European averages, and Hungary will remain in a precarious fiscal position with minimal resilience to shocks. Hungary's current account surplus peaked in 2013 but will remain sizeable in the coming years, averaging 3.7% of GDP between 2015 and 2017. We forecast a long-term narrowing of the surplus on the back of weak external demand and a gradual but sustained loss of competitiveness. Rising domestic inflation and developed state interest rate hikes will force the Hungarian national bank to hike rates by end-2015, earlier than its intended goal of 2016.

The bank's pro-growth stance and policy coordination with the government pose minimal risks in the short term, as global monetary conditions remain loose. However, these factors will damage its credibility over the long term, undermining its ability to achieve price and financial stability. Alleged infringements of civil liberties in Hungary will leave the government ostracised from decision-making at an EU level. This isolation will pose little threat to government stability given the strong popular support the government enjoys, but it does pose a threat to Hungary's influence on regional policy.

The Hungary Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Hungary and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

Key Uses

• Forecast the pace and stability of Hungary's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
• Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
• Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
• Contextualise Hungary's country risks against regional peers using Publisher's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
• Evaluate external threats to doing business in Hungary, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Hungary economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

Publisher provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Hungary through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Hungary Business Forecast Report features Publisher's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and Publisher's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

• Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
• Publisher's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

• Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
• Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
• Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
• Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
• Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
• Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
• External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
• Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

• Rely upon Publisher's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Hungary and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
• Exploit the benefits of Publisher's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Hungary, sourced and fully maintained by Publisher from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
• Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from Publisher's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Hungary over the next 5-years?

Publisher's Hungary country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

• SWOT Analysis for the Hungary Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Hungary.
• Political Stability and Risk Assessment - Publisher's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Hungary's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
• Current Administration and Policy-making Publisher assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

• Benchmark Hungary's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
• Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
• Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through Publisher's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

• Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Hungary, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.
• Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Hungary's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

• Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
• Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
• Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

• Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using Publisher's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
• Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using Publisher's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Hungary will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

Publisher's identifies investment opportunities in Hungary's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

• Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
• 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using Publisher's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
• Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - Publisher's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

• Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
• Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

Spanning over 52 pages “Hungary Business Forecast Report Q1 2015” report covering Executive Summary, Political Outlook, Long-Term Political Outlook, Economic Outlook, Fiscal Policy, Balance Of Payments, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, 10-Year Forecast, Operational Risk, Key Sectors, Global Assumptions.

Know more about this report at – http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/hungary-business-forecast-report-q1-2015