Brazil, China and Germany Autos Report Q1 2016, New Report Launched

Brazil's new vehicle market will return to growth in 2016 but will remain at historically low volumes. Upward pricing pressures, tightening lines of credit, consumer and business deleveraging and general economic stagnation will continue to drag on market performance.

• Consumer and business deleveraging of auto loans will continue as interest rates remain high and non-interest costs of credit rise.
• Exchange rate depreciation will weigh on OEM profit margins and force up vehicle prices.
• Commercial vehicles worse off than passenger cars given Lava Jato's effects on heavy industry and truck demand.
• Exports to grow but will still have little impact on production.Production cuts leading to industrial action amongst OEM workers, raising risks for automakers.

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We expect a rebound in auto sales in 2016 as the recent tax cut for the purchase of small cars helps to boost consumer sentiment and leads to a rise in sales. We forecast auto sales to grow 4.4% in 2016 to 24.3mn units.

Key Views

• The ongoing rebalancing of the economy towards consumption rather investment-led growth will see the passenger car continuing to outperform CVs over 2016-19.
• SUVs will continue to be an outperforming sub-segment
• Domestic brands will have the advantage in the near term by offering more affordable models.

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• Growth in the passenger car segment will remain robust as strong real wage growth and Germany's economic rebalancing towards more private consumption both provide support to car demand.
• Industry recovery to remain in fragile stage in 2016 with widespread discounts and dealer self-registrations bolstering sales numbers.
• Fall-out from Volkswagen (VW) scandal to remain focused on VW brands only and unlikely to cause serious downturn in overall car demand.
• Commercial vehicle sales to lag passenger car demand as weak investment in heavy industries remains weak.
• Vehicle production growth to remain marginal as global export opportunities shrink.

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