China and Romania Agribusiness Report Q1 2016, New Report Launched

China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015.

Key Forecasts

Corn production growth to 2018/19: 11.0% to 242mn tonnes. Given the decrease in government support for corn production, output expansion will be driven by steady improvements in yields and the probable adoption of genetically modified corn varieties in the coming years. However, strong consumption expansion means China will fall into a production deficit by the end of our forecast period, totalling around 5mn tonnes.

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We still believe the Romanian grain sector has high growth potential owing to its competitiveness and its exposure to the Middle East and Asia. We believe that the country's poultry subsector will outperform the rest of the livestock sector, owing to strong demand from Romania's population. Milk production will see limited growth after the EU quota removal (March 2015), while the sugar sector will moderately benefit from the removal (2017).

Industry Developments

We have revised downward our production forecasts for corn in 2015/16 and for wheat and barley in 2016/17. This is due to excessive rainfall between September and October delaying both the 2015/16 corn harvest and the 2016/17 winter wheat and barley plantings. Out to 2018/19, we expect strong export opportunities, particularly to MENA countries, to drive solid output growth in wheat and corn.

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