Thursday, 10 March 2016

Greece, Colombia and Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016; New Report Launched

Greece, Colombia and Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Cheese production will see buoyant growth in the coming years due to strong export opportunities, while sugar will remain on a declining trend as the competition is set to increase in the EU market. Poultry consumption will outperform the livestock sector due to its lower cost, which will provide a modest push to corn production towards the end of our forecast period to 2020.

Key Forecasts
  • Poultry consumption from 2016 to 2020: up 13.9% to 208,180 tonnes. The cheaper price of poultry meat will see it continue to gain ground against beef and pork. In 2017 we are forecasting poultry consumption to outpace production for the first time.
  • Cheese production to 2020: up 13.0% to 253,640 tonnes. Solid exports opportunities will lead the way in keeping the dairy segment supported.
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 0.2% (up from an estimated contraction of -0.3% in 2015, expected to grow by 1.3% over 2016-2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 0.7% (up from an estimated contraction of -1.1% in 2015).
  • Publisher universe agribusiness market value: USD14.2bn in 2016, up by 3.7% on 2015 level of USD13.7bn.


Colombia's agribusiness sector is being held back by a number of deep structural challenges - including the lingering consequences of internal armed conflict, structural inefficiencies, low competitiveness and poor policy choices. As a result, area cultivated and yields have stagnated over the past decade. But after several decades of disappointing growth in Colombia's agribusiness sector, the outlook for production and exports is brightening. The efforts made to resolve the conflict, coupled with the potential for upcoming agricultural reforms, have paved the way for the revival of Colombia's agribusiness.

The coffee, fruits, sugar, palm oil and horticulture sectors offer the best opportunities. Colombian agriculture enjoys a large diversity thanks to abundant natural resources and diverse climates and topography. Although FTAs may undermine the livestock and dairy sectors, they also provide Colombia with large export markets. The US and EU, which are the main markets for Colombian agricultural products, will see their imports grow in the coming years with the decrease in tariffs.

Key Forecasts
  • Corn consumption growth to 2020: 18.4% to 7.1mn tonnes. Corn consumption will expand at a faster pace than production over the medium term, boosted by the growth in the livestock sector, especially in the poultry segment. The domestic corn deficit will reach 4.75mn tonnes by 2018/19, compared with
  • 3.95mn tonnes in 2013/14.
  • Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 26.4% to 1.8mn tonnes. Poultry will record the strongest growth within the livestock sector over the coming five years, supported by a growing domestic demand for meat products at affordable prices.
  • Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 11.3% to 14.8mn bags. Programmes to replace aging plantations and improve resistance to disease are starting to bear fruit and will support yields and lead to apick up in planted area in the coming years. The various FTAs signed over recent years with the US, Canada and the EU will provide Colombia with large export markets.


Malaysia's agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, as its most emblematic sector, the palm oil industry, is undermined by low prices and growing structural challenges. The cocoa sector is in an even worse position, suffering a severe decline after the stellar performance of the 1990s. The cocoa processing sector is facing increasing competition from Indonesia and is losing market share at a fast pace. The medium term outlook is brighter, amidst strong growth prospects in the poultry sector and opportunities for value added palm based oleochemical exports. Malaysia will have to remain ahead of its biggest competitor, Indonesia, if its agribusiness sector is to stay afloat. As such, the next challenge for the country resides in the economic integration of ASEAN. The ASEAN Economic Community will present some opportunities, for example for poultry exports. However, it also poses risks to the future of the sugar refining sector.

Key Forecasts
  • Palm oil production growth to 2019/20: 12.9% to 22.4mn tonnes. Production growth will reaccelerate towards the end of our forecast period, after the slower growth recorded in recent years. The ongoing replanting and yield improvement programmes will bear fruit and support output.
  • Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 18.8% to 1.7mn tonnes. After a decade of strong growth, we forecast poultry meat production to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years, as rising production costs is undermining the development of the sector. Malaysia will maintain a fragile self-sufficiency in poultry.
  • Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 13.7% to 1.9mn tonnes. Consumption growth will be slower than in the previous decade as it already comes from a high base, Malaysians being among the largest consumers of sugar on a per capita basis. Future sugar demand will be driven mainly by rising incomes and population growth.
  • 2016 Publisher universe agribusiness market value: USD29.99bn, up 6.7% y-o-y, forecast to grow by 6.2% annually from 2016 to 2020.
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 4.5% (down from 4.7% expected in 2015, forecast to average 4.6% from 2016 to 2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 2.9% (down from 3.1% expected in 2015, forecast to average 2.4% from 2016 to 2020).

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