2016 will mark another year of slow growth in the Angolan economy as
the legacy of the oil price collapse continues to pose a headwind. The
completion of several legacy investments into the hydrocarbon sector will see
some uptick in growth in 2017, but the structural vulnerabilities attached to
oil dependence will remain a persistent issue for the economy.
A more robust recovery in oil prices and the government's commitment
to cutting expenditures will facilitate a smaller fiscal deficit in Angola than
previously expected. Nevertheless, the public debt burden will remain
dangerously high and government cuts will entail a slowdown in the much needed
development of the country's infrastructure network.
The beginnings of a recovery in the oil price and a strong outlook for
production mean the risk posed by Angola's external position will decrease over
the next 12 months. However, any narrowing of the country's trade deficit will
not portend a structural improvement in economic fundamentals of Angola's
external position, which will remain highly dependent on the global oil market.
Inflation will remain high as prolonged food shortages increase the
cost of the consumer basket in Angola, prompting the Banco Nacional de Angola
to carry out further rate hikes before year-end 2016. However, the decision to
implement a more stable trajectory of kwanza devaluations will see inflation
slowly fall from its current highs in the second half of 2016.
Although by no means guaranteed, a managed transfer of power to a
chosen successor is the most likely outcome of President José Eduardo Dos
Santos' decision to step down from office in 2018. While ignoring democratic
principle in any transition of power would increase resentment towards elites
and heighten political risk, policy continuity would more than offset most of
the impact on investor sentiment.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our forecasts for Angola's budget deficit in 2016 as
oil prices trend higher than previously expected, and the government signals
its commitment to more austere fiscal policy with a revised budget and
negotiations with the IMF. As such, we expect the deficit to equal just 4.3% of
GDP, compared to our previous forecast of 8.1%.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/angola-country-risk-report-q3-2016
A
substantial uptick in investment is likely following a devaluation and
liberalisation of Argentina's external accounts. Nonetheless, this will likely
not begin until the latter half of 2016, leading to a contraction in real GDP
as private consumption declines in response to falling real purchasing power.
Thereafter, Argentina will enter a period of robust growth as foreign
investment flows into the country.
The
government of President Mauricio Macri will move to reduce the country's budget
deficit in the coming years by reducing government subsidies on electricity.
This will temper inflationary pressures as the government can move away from
printing new pesos to finance its substantial deficit. Nonetheless, subsidy
reduction will be gradual in order to limit the shock to consumers' disposable
incomes.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/argentina-country-risk-report-q3-2016
Economic
growth in Aruba will tick upwards during the next 10 years due to a steady
increase in tourism arrivals growth and as the reopening of Aruba's oil
refinery bolsters fixed investment and exports. That said, the reopening of the
refinery will not boost economic growth to the extent that the Aruban
authorities expect given the financial difficulties experienced by Petróleos de
Venezuela.
Inflation
will tick upwards over our 10-year forecast period, driven primarily by a
gradual recovery in domestic demand. Nevertheless, with the Centrale Bank van
Aruba set to maintain its currency peg to the US dollar, anchoring imported
inflationary pressure, headline price growth will remain relatively subdued.
Aruba's
fiscal deficit will narrow over the next 10 years as the government implements
measures to cut spending and boost revenues. More prudent fiscal policy will
drive a narrowing of the fiscal deficit and a moderation in the government's
debt load.
Aruba's
current account balance will remain largely in surplus over the next 10 years
owing to robust tourism receipts and refined oil exports. The country's
stronger current account balance, relative to the previous five years, will
ensure that Aruba's external debt remains sustainable over the next decade.
Aruba's
political environment will remain stable over the next decade; a result of
policy continuity and rising economic growth. In addition, strong ties to the
Netherlands will ensure continued improvement in the quality of Aruban
institutions over the years ahead.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/aruba-country-risk-report-2016
Austrian
real GDP growth will accelerate in 2016, but economic activity will lag behind
regional peers, despite improving external demand from the eurozone.
On
the back of the government’s tax reform; we expect household consumption growth
to accelerate in the quarters ahead, significantly adding to GDP growth.
At
a federal level, support for the Freedom Party (FPO) exceeds that of either the
SPO or OVP, which we expect to hold throughout 2016. The FPO is now the junior
government coalition member in two Austrian states (Burgenland and Upper
Austria).
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/austria-country-risk-report-q3-2016
No comments:
Post a Comment