Lower
oil prices will hit growth as government spending and consumer confidence
falls. We forecast real GDP growth at 2.4% and 2.6% in 2016 and 2017 from an
estimated 4.0% in 2015 Dubai will see an even sharper slowdown as discretionary
spending from the rest of the Gulf, as well as the impact of weaker currencies
in China and India, takes its toll on investment ad spending.
Credit
growth to the private sector will remain relatively slow through, 2016 as
commercial banks continue to increase provisioning against, potential loan
losses due to the debt funding cliff.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/united-arab-emirates-country-risk-report-q3-2016
Economic
recovery in Ukraine will be sluggish in the years ahead. The country is
stepping out of a prolonged period of economic contraction, having experienced
two fully fledged economic crises in the last seven years.
It
is unlikely that the Ukrainian government will retake control of Crimea and
Sevastopol, nor the occupied parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Ukraine
will only meet part of the major structural reforms that are required by the
IMF through its financing package. The Ukrainian authorities have already
removed most of the gas subsidies and also implemented pension reforms.
However, fighting endemic corruption, reforming the judiciary, and improving
the banking sector and the business environment will take a slow pace.
Despite
the new IMF package, Ukraine's FX reserves remain poor. FX reserve levels will
also remain under pressure in the long term, as imports will outpace exports
again in 2016 and beyond.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin will be happy with Crimea for now, and will not push
for annexation in the North East of Ukraine. Ethnic divisions in NE Ukraine not
nearly as clear cut as Crimea, and it would benefit Putin to retain a large
ethnic Russian influence in mainland Ukraine (enabling him to maintain a direct
political stake in Ukrainian affairs). Moreover, Russia's shift of its
attention to Syria will benefit Ukraine, whilst both Moscow and Kiev have
urgent economic needs to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Major Forecast
Changes
The
newly formed Groysman government will facilitate structural reform progress and
enhance cooperation with the IMF.
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more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/ukraine-country-risk-report-q3-2016
Uruguay
is set to experience a period of structurally lower growth in the coming years
as investment into expanding agricultural production and re-export capacity is
tempered and foreign capital flows fall. Nonetheless, Uruguay will continue to
outpace Latin America's average real GDP expansion as the country's middle
class supports private consumption growth.
Inflation
will remain elevated over the coming years as the Banco Central del Uruguay
will not implement significant policy measures to stymie price increases. The
bank will instead focus on attempts to spur growth and encourage consumption
with low borrowing costs as tempered investment weighs on economic growth.
There
will be significant headwinds to the country's balance of payments as
Argentines begin to repatriate assets stored in Uruguayan banks and Chinese
demand growth for agricultural goods is tempered over the coming years as
compared to the previous decade. This will have a negative impact on both the
current and financial accounts. It will also lead to a continued depreciation
of the Uruguayan peso.
Key
Forecast Changes
Our
outlook on the country's external position has improved substantially, as
imports have contracted sharply in recent months and exports are set to
strengthen in 2017.
We
now expect the Uruguayan peso to trade higher in the coming quarters, in light
of the bottoming of commodities prices and strengthening investor sentiment
toward emerging markets.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/uruguay-country-risk-report-q3-2016
Low
oil prices, high inflation and a poor business environment will see Venezuela's
recession stretch into its third year in 2016, and persist until 2018.
Major
political gains on the part of the opposition in December's legislative
elections will result in a gradual turn towards more orthodox economic policy,
although the pace of change will be substantially hampered by the institutional
strength of the PSUV and the power of the executive branch.
Political
risk will remain elevated due to deteriorating living standards and lack of
confidence in leadership to competently govern. Inflation will remain elevated,
at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will
remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.
Major Forecast
Changes
- Due to increased political gridlock which has diminished the probability of meaningful and timely economic reform, we have downgraded our real GDP growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017.
- We forecast the economy to contract by 7.0% in 2016 and by 1.6% in 2017.
- Following our Oil & Gas team's upgrade to oil prices, we believe that Venezuela's current account shortfall will be slightly narrower than we previously forecast, although still very wide by historical and regional standards, at 7.1% of GDP in 2016.
For
more information Visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/venezuela-country-risk-report-q3-2016
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